WHAT-IF SCENARIOS

 

The Scenarios procedure allows to test scenarios based on a multiple regression explanatory model. Can be inputted hypothetical data for the explaining variables, and the procedure returns you the estimated value for the explained variable.

The interpretation is the following: according to the found regression model (see Explaining -Regression Model), if a case had the values which the user inputted for each independent variable, then chances are that the value of the dependent variable is close to the one computed and displayed in the dependent variable cell.

  %FAM_POV_INCIDENCE ESTIM_MIDWIVES/10,000WRA %MWRA_GAIN_EMPL_PRV %FAM_EXP_HEALTH_1997 POP_DENSITY_2000 %MWRA_02_MODERN
ARMM 57 53.86 7.082 0.9 216.226 10.5
CAR 31.1 156.98 14.335 2.1 74.628 38.4
Ilocos 29.6 91.715 17.346 2.3 327.135 34.2
Cagayan Valley 24.8 107.709 20.405 2 104.821 50.1
Central Luzon 17 69.54 18.727 2.2 382.144 39.7
Southern Tagalog 20.8 69.181 20.046 2.5 269.972 38
Bicol 49 90.498 18.972 2.2 265.127 26.1
Western Visayas 37.8 109.966 19.517 3.1 307.009 32.8
Central Visayas 32.3 96.147 19.31 1.9 381.304 32.9
Eastern Visayas 37.8 103.471 20.159 1.3 168.459 25.3
Western Mindanao 38.3 82.996 13.381 1.7 188.029 31.5
Northern Mindanao 32.9 109.862 29.573 2.2 204.705 39.7
Southern Mindanao 31.5 55.838 14.76 2.6 186.872 39.4
Central Mindanao 48.4 95.112 25.527 2.9 163.078 44.1
Caraga 42.9 117.193 20.739 0.5 111.177 35.1
NCR 5.7 36.534 20.597 1.8 15617 34.53
             
ARMM 57 53.86 7.082 0.9 216.226 10.5
Scenario 1 57 100 7.082 0.9 216.226 15.57
Scenario 2 50 100 7.082 0.9 216.226 18.44

In the above example, you can see the case ARMM which has the percentage of married women of reproductive age that use modern contraceptive methods (%MWRA_02_MODERN)  of 10.5% , meaning an unsatisfactory value.

The first scenario assumes increasing the explaining ESTIM_MIDWIVES/10,000WRA variable (Estimated midwives for 10,000 WRA ratio) from 53.86 to 100, leaving other explaining indicators unchanged. 

The output is relevant: %MWRA_02_MODERN increases to 15.57%.

The second scenario assumes decreasing the explaining  %FAM_POV_INCIDENCE variable (%Families with annual PC income under per capita poverty threshold) from 57% to 50%, leaving other values as in Scenario 1. 

The output shows a increase of %MWRA_02_MODERN, up to 18.44

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